Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 12.305653 13.861413 15.624052 17.787262 20.395971 23.473653 27.429855
2025-03-23 10.235035 12.174865 14.554918 17.750415 22.026268 27.702415 36.087794
2025-03-30 8.766642 10.776583 13.366549 17.050045 22.335398 29.963769 42.487105
2025-04-06 7.669552 9.650955 12.295992 16.221898 22.164569 31.332928 47.779278
2025-04-13 6.879500 8.821678 11.490166 15.594327 22.097611 32.739945 53.462067
2025-04-20 6.876141 9.054011 12.171337 17.220378 25.788413 41.158166 75.424328
2025-04-27 6.585681 8.837375 12.157257 17.744686 27.736963 47.026076 95.300187
2025-05-04 6.073829 8.245689 11.507006 17.129811 27.530074 48.607791 105.793736
2025-05-11 5.857755 8.075729 11.488720 17.568648 29.351849 54.950187 133.376080
2025-05-18 5.531521 7.708837 11.117684 17.334477 29.802323 58.349197 154.750587
2025-05-25 5.246435 7.384312 10.785167 17.124727 30.258475 61.910279 180.026775
2025-06-01 5.040586 7.169813 10.615209 17.192155 31.314887 67.386997 219.171166
2025-06-08 4.734133 6.785919 10.147810 16.679343 31.088424 69.584517 248.302921
2025-06-15 4.531331 6.558812 9.934204 16.642182 31.972136 75.477459 307.906669
2025-06-22 4.254963 6.192767 9.448136 16.002045 31.290165 76.264880 338.846784
2025-06-29 3.984358 5.821930 8.929106 15.243840 30.196969 75.379375 357.970658
2025-07-06 3.761703 5.520619 8.516284 14.668371 29.483374 75.630108 388.689853
2025-07-13 3.841953 5.735545 9.053402 16.157828 34.482355 99.439895 750.074183
2025-07-20 3.779873 5.700100 9.121961 16.637007 36.869053 114.967903 1178.317046
2025-07-27 3.595714 5.440972 8.748213 16.075004 36.097099 115.787823 1342.885481
2025-08-03 3.536618 5.399773 8.790033 16.476179 38.341920 133.076294 2280.985607
2025-08-10 3.412171 5.235356 8.580558 16.262150 38.615020 140.365751 3147.353489
2025-08-17 3.298019 5.084255 8.388183 16.070354 38.930313 148.333663 4551.013365